Scotland Arrive At Crucial Juncture In Euro 2020 Qualifying

Scotland Arrive At Crucial Juncture In Euro 2020 Qualifying

Friday Night Lights followed by a bit of Monday Night Football. That's what lies in store for Scotland this weekend as the qualifying campaign for Euro 2020 reaches its halfway point then turns for the home straight. Whether or not Scotland will have control of their own destiny in the final few furlongs depends on what happens during the next two matches.

Hampden Park will host Russia on Friday evening before the rampaging Belgians occupy the away dressing room at the famous old stadium on Monday. A difficult 180 minutes of football lies ahead for the Scots but home advantage offers a little hope for some success.

Scotland currently sit in fourth position in Group I. Belgium - handling all business home and away easily - already look home and hosed for first place so it looks like a three-way shootout with Kazakhstan and Russia for the coveted second place. Scotland's atrocious start to the campaign, losing 3-0 in Kazakhstan, coupled with Russia's 4-0 win over the same opposition a few days later, means Scotland can't afford to slip up again against any of their rivals for the one remaining qualifying spot. It's a tall order.

But great things are achieved in small steps. Step one was achieved when the SFA parted company with Alex McLeish and secured Steve Clarke as manager. Clarke's tenure got off to a winning start as Scotland prevailed 2-1 over Cyprus at Hampden in June before losing 3-0 in Belgium three days later. Encouraging signs were evident in both of those matches though, signs which suggest that small step number two, namely beating Russia at Hampden, can be achieved.

The rest of this article will look more closely at the current Scotland squad before examining the challenges the Russians will present on Friday night. Without wanting to seem defeatist I can't see Scotland picking up anything from Monday's challenge against the Belgians so the look ahead to that match will be brief.

For most of the last 25 years or so Scotland have been well covered when it came to goalkeepers. Managers sometimes had the luxury of two or occasionally three keepers who they knew were just as good as one another in terms of ability and experience. Those days seem to be gone for the time being though. Now we have the experienced veteran David Marshall of Wigan along with the younger duo of Portsmouth's Craig MacGillivray and Jon McLaughlin of Sunderland. Marshall started the last two games so it looks like he is the starting goalie at the moment. MacGillivray and McLaughlin are untested at international level but both are young and will be keen to impress if called upon.

The defensive options Clarke has at his disposal this time around look dangerously thin. It is a worry. Andy Robertson will captain the team from left-back, and Stephen O'Donnell should continue at right-back but the central defence will start with an untried partnership. Charlie Mulgrew, who performed solidly in the last two fixtures, should get one of the shirts. Liam Cooper of Leeds United, David Bates of Sheffield Wednesday and Mikey Devlin of Aberdeen are the other centre-halves in the squad. Scott McKenna, John Souttar and Kieran Tierney, all viable starting defensive options for Scotland, are injured meaning the squad is down to the bare bones in this department. Whoever is plugged in next to Mulgrew will have no settling in period. I'm sure the Russians will have identified Scotland's defensive situation as the weak point of the team and will be keen to put the defence under pressure.

In contrast the midfield area of the squad is very well stocked currently. With Scott McTominay, John McGinn, Callum McGregor, Ryan Christie, Kenny McLean and Ryan Jack all performing well for their clubs the main issue for Clarke will be who to leave out. Stuart Armstrong and Robert Snodgrass (welcome back to the squad) also offer adaptable midfield options. It will be interesting to see who Clarke selects but I wouldn't mind seeing McTominay and McGinn providing the base with Christie further forward of them.

The wide positions pick themselves. James Forrest of Celtic and Bournemouth's Ryan Fraser will start on the right and left respectively. Johnny Russell of Sporting Kansas City will provide cover from the bench.

The central striker will be one of Steven Naismith, Oliver McBurnie or Matt Phillips. Leigh Griffiths of Celtic is probably still Scotland's best option in this position but he was left out of the squad this time as he continues to work his way back to full fitness following a lengthy spell on the sidelines. For Friday's encounter I think Clarke will start with McBurnie as he has made a reasonable start to the season with Sheffield United in the English Premier League. If Clarke decides on a more physical presence then Phillips of West Bromwich Albion might get the nod. Phillips is a strange one for me - his performances for Scotland so far have either been highly impressive or so bad he barely looks like he's played the game before. Hopefully he's the former this weekend.

These players have the privilege and pressure of trying to deliver for Scotland over the next few days. Here's a closer look at what they will be up against.

Scotland v Russia - September 6, Hampden Park, Glasgow, 1945 BST.

The easiest way to gauge how good an upcoming opponent is, is to look back at how they performed during the last major tournament. I'm sure most football fans can remember Russia's fine run to the quarter-finals of last summer's World Cup. Granted they had home advantage but going in to that tournament they weren't expected to emerge from the group stages. They definitely exceeded expectations. 

With this comes increased backing from the Russian public along with slightly extra pressure to keep their recent good record going. Scanning Russia's squad I can see all the standout performers from their magic run last summer still there. Mario Fernandes, Aleksandr Golovin, Denis Cheryshev, Fedor Smolov and Artem Dzyuba will be looking to shine at Hampden on Friday. Interestingly, with the exception of Monaco's Golovin and Cheryshev of Valencia the rest of Russia's squad all ply their trade at home. I'm not sure how the Russian league compares with the leagues the Scotland players play in but, based on population size and the sprinkling of high quality South American imports who play in that part of the world I suspect these players are playing at a high standard every week.

The much derided FIFA World Rankings have Russia at 46. Scotland are currently ranked 48 so this is one barometer at least that suggests the teams are fairly evenly matched.

Despite the closeness in the rankings and home advantage I see Scotland as underdogs going into this contest. There are too many question marks defensively to be going into this one with any degree of over-confidence. In saying that I do have faith in Steve Clarke to put a tactical plan together in order to give his team the best chance to succeed. This, coupled with the must win nature of the game and a big crowd behind the team has me willing to believe that the win is possible. 2-1 to Scotland.

Scotland v Belgium - September 9, Hampden Park, Glasgow, 1945 BST.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this piece I can't see Scotland getting anything from the Belgium game. I hope I'm wrong but the best case scenario I can envisage is a respectable performance with a 2-0 defeat offering valuable building blocks for future matches. 

Even without the Hazard brothers, who are both injured, Belgium have a formidable amount of world class players to call upon. Talents like Kevin De Bruyne, Youri Tielemans, Dries Mertens and Romelu Lukaku will all be at Hampden on Monday night looking to keep their perfect record in qualifying going.

In many ways this game will probably look similar to the Brussels encounter in June with Belgium attacking and Scotland trying to hold out while looking to counter attack when the opportunities arise. If everything goes perfectly for Scotland, and Belgium have an off night an unlikely but most welcome draw could be achieved but given the current gulf between the two teams I just can't see that happening.

As long as Russia are defeated a loss to Belgium doesn't really do too much damage to the hope of finishing in second place. It would mean probably having to win in Moscow on October 10 - hopefully we are looking at that scenario in the preview for the next round of fixtures.

The three points available on Friday night against Russia must be grabbed any way possible by Scotland. If they aren't then the remainder of the Group I fixtures would effectively be reduced to friendlies for the manager to try out different players, combinations and formations in order to prepare for one last shot at Euro 2020 qualification. 

Scotland have already secured a place in the Nations League playoff which acts as a last chance saloon for getting in to the European Championships. These games are scheduled for March next year but every Scotland fan truly hopes that this route to the tournament isn't required.

The last chance saloon is an option but a win over Russia on Friday will keep hope alive, at least for a little while longer, that Scotland won't need to open their tab there. It will be nerve-racking and dramatic, but with Scotland it always is. 

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